The Political Fish

Guess what?  There are a scant 1000 days left before Election Day 2012.  Now is as good of a time as any to see whose name may be on the ballot opposing Mr. Obama.  I gathered most of the names on this list from Intrade.com and Wikipedia, plus tossed in a few of my own.  First, let’s take a look at the “not-a-chancers”.  I call this the “Dennis Kucinich Division”.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney – Aside from the obvious reasons, here’s one biggie: He turns 72 days after the 2012 inauguration.

South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford – Once considered a legitimate prospect for Vice President, Sanford all-but-destroyed his political career when he, ummm, went hiking on the Applachian Trail.

Nevada Senator John Ensign – See above.

Sorry, Newt. Thanks for trying.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich – While I can see him having some sort of hand in the political process (as an advisor or chairman of the Republican Party), I can’t see him as the Republican nomination.  If you think about it, he really combines the worst qualities of Sanford (the womanizer) and Cheney (the Darth Vader).

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson – Oh, come on.  I’m spending more time writing about why Thompson wouldn’t be the 2012 nominee than he spent working on his 2008 campaign.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani - Not going to happen.  Besides, if I had to choose which New York City mayor would be the most likely to be a 2012 contender, I’d choose Rudy’s successor.

General David Petraeus – I think he would be an excellent Secretary of Defense or even a Vice Presidential candidate, but I don’t see him as a legitimate Presidential contender.  At least at this early stage of the game.

Former Virginia Governor George Allen – No, and here’s why.  He’s done with politics.  In a little-known fact (my former boss is good friends with Allen), Allen had a falling-out with the Republican party back in 2006 when he was running for re-election.  Allen lost a lot of points in the “macaca flap”, but the Republicans wouldn’t give him money for his campaign.  Instead, they gave money to Sen. Rick Santorum’s futile bid to hold on to his Senate seat.  Allen lost by a slim margin.

General Colin Powell – I can’t see him currying much favor with the party bosses after his endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 pretty much was the nail-in-the-coffin of John McCain’s bid.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour – I’m sorry, but this guy just seems like he’s out of central casting for “old, crusty, Southern Republican”.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush – Ummmm… we may need to way a little bit before trotting out someone with the “Bush” name.  In a related note: when was the last time the Republicans won the White House without having “Bush” or “Nixon” on the Presidential ticket?  Answer: coming at the end.

Texas Representative Ron Paul – He’s probably a stronger candidate now than he was in 2008 because of the economic collapse, but I think that his isolationist foreign policy beliefs have turned off enough Republicans to the point where he cannot be considered a serious candidate.  That being said, I think his son, Rand Paul, a contender for a Senate seat in Kentucky, could be someone Republicans need to keep their eye on in the future.

Former New York Senator Hillary Clinton – No, but wouldn’t it be hilarious if she tried?  How poor would Obama have to do in order to have a serious challenge mounted against him?  Well, unfortunately, really, really bad.  As in, not even Jimmy Carter lost his party’s nomination in 1980.  I’m all for seeing Clinton try, though.

Second category.  These are the guys that will / may give it the ole’ college try and will probably pick up some marginal support, but will fall short.  I call this the “Bill Richardson Division”.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels – Daniels is quite popular in a state that, surprisingly, went for Obama in 2008.  His experience on the federal level came as President Bush’s Director of the Office of Budget Management.  In short, he was the guy who presided over a $236 billion surplus, that dwindled into a $400 billion deficit.  In 2012, barring anything unforeseen, the voters will take a keen eye towards fiscal responsibility.  This guy ain’t it.

Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn – See below.

Former Tennessee Senator Bill Frist – Both men are strong conservatives.  Frist seems to be done with politics; Coburn is running for re-election and hasn’t hinted if he wants to seek higher office.  Both men are known for their work as doctors on the side.  With the Health Care debate at a fevered pitch (what?  cliche?  Sorry.), I can see both men getting some support because of their expertise.  I can also see one, maybe both, accepting a Cabinet position in a Republican administration.  I don’t see either of them garnering significant support, though.  If I had to choose one, though, I would say Frist has the better shot.  Speaking of Tennessee Senators…

Tennessee Senator Bob Corker – A strong conservative, and he’s facing re-election in 2012.  I can imagine he’d choose to concentrate on that seat, at a time when the Republicans are fighting for control of the Senate, instead of mounting a run for the White House.

Former Ohio Congressman John Kasich – Can you imagine the furor if a former Foxnews host won the White House (and it wasn’t Alan Colmes)?  I’d cast a vote for this guy just to see if it’d cause Moveon.org to explode.  Kasich is an attractive candidate, especially if he wins the race for Ohio’s Governor this November.  And since Ohio will be a major swing state in 2012, I can bet the Republicans will be calling on him for help.  Is he Presidential-material?  Well, just to stick it to George Soros… I say, yeah, sure.

Former New York Governor George Pataki – Pataki’s a dark horse.  It really depends on the mood of the GOP in 2012.  If they want to try to put a fiscal conservative / social moderate up for election and try to win independent voters, Pataki could make a serious run at the Presidency.  If the Republicans say they tried that in 2008, well, Pataki won’t make it out of Iowa.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – After seeing him squeak by the unpopular Jon Corzine in November’s race for Governor (after seeing him whizz away a double-digit lead), I have no faith in his ability to run a major campaign.  But hey, as long as he cleans up my home state, I’m happy.

Iowa Representative Steve King – I’m pretty sure the last time (and only time) a Congressman went from the House of Representatives into the White House was in 1880, President James A. Garfield.  And look how well that turned out! (what?  Too soon?  How long before I can joke about that?)

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson – All you really need to know about Gary Johnson is he’s being called “the next Ron Paul”.

Third category – These are the young up-and-comers of the Republican party.  Maybe in a few years they’ll be the Presidential front-runners.  Maybe the next Vice President will come from this category (which is completely likely).  I call this “Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time” category the “John Edwards Division”

Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno – Fortuno, a 49-year-old Governor, has only been in office for one year.  He seems like the kind of guy that the Republicans will trot out from time-to-time to show the voters how much they care about Hispanics.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – Jindal unfortunately bombed his “coming-out” party last year when he gave the Republican response to Obama’s first address to Congress.  Oh well.  But before anyone launches a “what are you talking about? Jindal is awesome!” tirade against me, let me say this: Jindal is awesome.  But, he is only 38 years old.  He’s barely old enough to be eligible for President.  His time will come.  Just not yet.

Florida State Representative Marco Rubio – A rising star in the Republican party, Rubio, like Jindal, is just 38-years-old.  He’s a strong conservative, and thanks to grassroots support, is leading Florida Governor Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for Senate.  He’s too young for 2012, but keep an eye on him.  Especially if he beats Crist.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell – Not yet.  If the Republicans lose in 2012, put McDonnell at the top of the 2016 list.

Former Missouri Governor Matt Blunt – Blunt declined to run for a second term in 2008, because he, like every other Republican on the planet, was looking at a substantial butt-whupping.  As it turns out, the Democrat candidate wound up capturing 58% of the vote in Missouri, so Blunt was wise not to run and sacrifice his political future.  He’s a young guy, 39, and the son of Roy Blunt, a prominent congressman.  Matt has shown no signs of being interested in a Presidential run.  But I hardly doubt his career in politics is over yet.

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown – Brown, 50, garnered a lot of buzz after knocking off Martha Coaxley in the so-called “Miracle in Massachusetts” and won Ted Kennedy’s old seat.  While Brown is an attractive candidate (I say that in a political sense, not in the “he posed practically nude for Cosmo magazine” sense), he really needs to garner some experience before launching a Presidential run.  I know Obama did it like, 45 minutes after being sworn in, but we saw how that turned out, right?

Illinois Congressman Aaron Schock – Has gained popularity from the TMZ circuit for his washboard abs.  Why he won’t be President?  Well, for starters, he’s my age (28).  That means he’s Constitutionally-ineligible to be the President (or Vice President).  See you in 2032, buddy.

Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann – Bachmann’s framed herself as a Sarah Palin clone, without the crowd appeal (and at the same time, without the “I can see Russia from my backyard!”).  She has already ruled herself out of the Presidential race, citing a lack of experience (she was elected in 2006).

Virginia Representative Eric Cantor – Cantor’s name was pretty established during the last Presidential cycle, and was floated as a potential Vice President selection.  While he seems like a long-shot now, take this into account: by the time 2012 rolls around, he will be one of the leading Congressional voices of the Republican opposition.  At the very least, Cantor has to be considered for the short-list of Republican Vice Presidential hopefuls: he’s young, he’s Jewish, he represents a key swing state, and he’s experienced.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina – She’s running for Senate, and, if she can win, I can see her name being brought up as a Presidential dark horse.  One thing I can’t see is how she would have a chance at winning the White House if she puts out laughably bad ads like this one.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman – Whitman, like Fiorina, is running for statewide office in California (Whitman has her eyes set on the Governor’s chair).  She’s a tremendous businesswoman and has a great record; John McCain mentioned her name when he talked about potential Treasury Secretary nominees.  If Meg Whitman wins in November, I will easily move her into category four.

Category Four: Contenders.  These are the guys, who, if things break the right way, will be the Republican nominee (even though they have an uphill battle).  I call this the “John Kerry Division”.

Indiana Representative Mike Pence – Pence, like Cantor, will be one of the leading voices of the opposition by 2012.  I just don’t think he has the name-recognition or the charisma to vault him into the top tier of candidates.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist – If Crist can fend off Rubio and win a seat in the Senate, he will be in good position for a Presidential run.  If the general mood of the country is favorable to the moderates, Crist will be in great shape.  If it swings towards the tea-partiers, well, not-so-much.  One thing I would add: a Crist loss to Rubio does not mean the end of his Presidential chances.

Texas Governor Rick Perry – I don’t know, I just think America needs a little bit more time before electing another Texas Governor.  Nothing against Perry, just, you know… too soon.

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan – I wavered between putting him in the “rising star” category.  This is probably too high for him.  However, his “Roadmap for America’s Future 2.0” has been getting a ton of attention recently.  If the Republicans go with someone younger than President Obama, Ryan might be the guy.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. – Huntsman ran one of the best-managed states in America, and his name was floated as  one of the early dark horses for the 2012 Election.  Rumor has it that Obama feared running against this guy so much he gave him a diplomat’s position; currently, Huntsman is the United States’ Ambassador to China.

Tomorrow: The top five candidates, the “Hillary Clinton” Division… and I will reveal my Presidential pick.  Stay tuned to ThePoliticalFish.com for more.

Trivia answer: The last time the GOP won without Bush or Nixon on the ticket?  1928, the Herbert Hoover / Charles Curtis ticket.

That’s what 900,000 + in GOP money gets ya’ these days. From Fox News.com

Republican Dede Scozzafava endorsed her former Democratic opponent Sunday in the race for an upstate New York congressional seat, shaking up the contest for the second day in a row after exiting the race Saturday. 

Scozzafava dropped out after Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman experienced a late-in-the-game surge. The move was expected to consolidate GOP voters behind Hoffman on Tuesday. 

But on Sunday, Scozzafava issued a written statement in which she backed Democrat Bill Owens. 

“I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same,” she said. “In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.” 

Hoffman and Owens are competing for the 23rd Congressional District seat formerly held by Republican John McHugh, who was lured away by the Obama administration to be Army secretary. 

I am still wondering when the Republican “establishment” will come out and acknowledge their sheer ignorance in spending from their campaign coffers, throwing their weight behind this woman, all the while knowing her leftist tendencies. NRCC chair Pete Sessions is still blaming conservatives instead of admitting they made a boo-boo. Now that little boo-boo has cost them a million dollars that could have been put towards a candidate that meets the demographic of the district, and serves the Republican party base, as well as protecting the country from a leftist takeover.

After Dede dropped out, Newt Gingrich and some other GOP johnny- come-latelys decided to throw all in for Doug Hoffman, and with Scozzafavas announcement today, frankly they all have that permanent egg stain on their faces.

Scozzafavas entrenchment in the big labor movement was so obvious it is disturbing that the GOP didn’t take notice. From the NY Daily News via Michelle Malkin

At 10 p.m. last night – right in the middle of the Halloween festivities – Scozzafava’s husband, Ron McDougall, president of the Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence Central Labor Council issued a statement through the AFL-CIO that he is endorsing Owens against Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

According to his statement, it basically all comes down to support of the labor movement’s top priority, the Employee Free Choice Act and its controversial card-check provision, which Owens and Scozzafava supported – much to the chagrin of the right – and Hoffman pointedly does not.

“This has been a difficult day for my family. But the needs and concerns of the men and women of the 23rd Congressional District remain paramount,” McDougall said. “As such, I wholeheartedly and without reservation endorse the candidacy of Bill Owens.”

“As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers.”

“Hoffman’s opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District.”

Everything about this woman screamed lefty Democrat. The GOP missed it, and its leadership is to blame. As long as the head of the “establishment” continues to try and play nice in the sand box, they will continue to stay anemic on the national stage. It’s become obvious that Michael Steele and the GOP leadership cannot lead, so I will say follow your base and we will lead you where you need to be.

Breaking from Fox News:

Republican state Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava has suspended her campaign for upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional seat, giving a possible boost to Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman against Democrat Bill Owens, Fox News has confirmed. 

The move comes on the heels of a new poll that showed Scozzafava had fallen behind her two competitors in a race too close.

The special election is Tuesday and political analysts believe upstate New York is a preview of the races in 2010 and 2012 as Republican leaders struggle to rebuild, redefine and regain control of Washington.

The Siena College poll has Owens picking up 36 percent of the vote, while Hoffman has 35 percent. Scozzafava has 20 percent, with nine percent of voters undecided.

Chalk this one up to a victory for conservatives nationwide. And shame on Newt Gingrich for backing a woman who was clearly a center-left Republican and not representative of the conservative district that she was tapped to represent.

It will now be a two-horse race in the NY-23 district run-off election. Doug Hoffman, the Conservative party candidate, and Bill Owens the Democrat. Most recent polling with Scozzafava still in the race showed a neck and neck affair with Owens at 36%, Hoffman 35% and Scozzafava checking in with 20%.

Doug Hoffman garnered national attention for jumping into the race as a third party candidate after he was passed over in the selection process of the district. He attracted endorsements of many high-profile Republicans nationwide, as well as the teaparty activists who flocked towards upstate New York to lend their support.

This is what the Republican party needs. The big-tent philosophy of this party is what has gotten them into trouble in national elections recently. The base is motivated, and they are conservative.  Conservatives nationwide want to keep this country true to the principles it was founded upon, and this will be the start in retaking what has become an out of control governmental machine.

Now its time to watch the Governors races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Update:

From Newt Gingrich on Twitter:

newtgingrich Scozzafava dropping out leaves hoffman as only anti-tax anti-pelosi vote in ny 23 Every voter opposed to tax increases support doug hoffman11 minutes ago from TwitterBerry

Scozzafava’s statement:

Dear Friends and Supporters:

Throughout the course of my campaign for Congress, I have made the people of the 23rd District and the issues that affect them the focal point of my campaign. As a life long resident of this District, I care deeply and passionately about its people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor, I have always sought to act with the best interest of our District and its residents in mind—and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.

The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I’ve traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I’ve been overwhelmed by the amount of support I’ve received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.

In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I’ve said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it’s about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me – and to those who choose not to – I offer my sincerest thanks.

Dede

Tim Pawlenty- Republican Governor from Minnesota– Not conservative, Not Interesting, Not the nominee he hopes to be for 2012.

Sarah Palin- Would win the nomination if she runs for 2012– Iowa straw poll big margin win, New Hampshire would have trouble against Gingrich and Romney she finishes 3rd while the national media call her dead until she wins big in South Carolina. Has more fight than the boys- strong grassroots support.

Newt Gingrich- Comes in second in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina then competes very well in the large states.

Mike Huckabee- Drops out after Iowa finishing third behind Palin, Gingrich, while in front of Romney.

Mitt Romney- Loses Iowa after spending way too much money– wins New Hampshire– then hoping to be a Treasury Sec.

Bobby Jindal– Absolutely destroyed himself nationally giving the Republican response-

Mark Stanford, Rudy Giuliani,   Haley Barbour,

European Socialists are taking a beating in this years European Union election cycle.

It appears the Socialist approach does not set well with the majority in Europe as nations went out and voted on the EU parliament over the weekend.  Early election projections show the center/right parties with a strong lead in the Parliament with approximately 263-273 seats in their possession, with the center/left leaning parties only taking approximately 155-165 seats.

Germany’s Social Democrats had an abysmal showing, in what will be a major boost to Chancellor Angela Merkel and her conservative approach. Elections in Italy, Belgium, France, Britain and Spain showed a similar trend. Greece showed the only rapproachment to the trend, as the conservative leaders in that country have been racked with scandal, the citizens soundly rejecting them.

Hopefully this will be a sign of things to come for the 2010 United States mid-term elections. The Democrat controlled Congress has all but run the economy in to the ground, House speaker Nancy Pelosi has been an absolute failure at her position, and they have shown a shocking hypocrisy after preaching fairness and reaching across the aisles to Republicans. They have instead forced through an extreme left agenda, bolstered by the recent election of Barack Obama. One could argue that his hurried approach to all of these major agenda items (health care, cap and trade) could be his foresight to the upcoming elections. I for one am looking for a Republican revolution like we saw in with Newt Gingrich at the helm, during the Clinton presidency.

One quick qualifier to that last statement. A Republican Revolution is meaningless if the party continues to put forward spineless hypocrites into office. We need a complete cleaning of the House chamber and the Senate chamber. The Congress of the United States of America has become an embarrassment.  Hope and Change will be coming in 2010!!

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich took off the gloves today and launched into a vicious attack against the current House speaker Nancy Pelosi about her ever evolving story about whether or not she was aware of the CIA tactics being used in Gitmo interrogations.

“I think she has lied to the House, and I think that the House has an absolute obligation to open an inquiry, and I hope there will be a resolution to investigate her. And I think this is a big deal.  I don’t think the Speaker of the House can lie to the country on national security matters,” Gingrich said.

This was just the beginning of the tirade that I’m sure will draw a severe response from the Democrat faithful, including those that still support (why??) Speaker Pelosi.

Gingrich continues on: “I think this is the most despicable, dishonest and vicious political effort I’ve seen in my lifetime.”

“She is a trivial politician, viciously using partisanship for the narrowist of purposes, and she dishonors the Congress by her behavior.Speaker Pelosi’s the big loser, because she either comes across as incompetent, or dishonest.  Those are the only two defenses,the fact is she either didn’t do her job, or she did do her job and she’s now afraid to tell the truth.”

All of this came in response to Pelosi’s stinging attack on the CIA, which I might add was the second or third version of the story, accusing the agency of lying to Congress, and at the behest of the Bush administration, mislead the country. Almost a plausible idea, only one problem. The CIA hasn’t yet changed their story. Speaker Pelosi has. Many times now…

So who is the liar here?? Well, we may never know but my money is on Ms. Pelosi who has a proven track record of self interest at all costs. I smell the beginning of the end for the first female House speaker, to which I must say, good riddance. She has become dangerous, and is everything you would ever hope for in a San Francisco liberal. Her socialist agenda and illegal and unethical tactics within the legislative branch have not gone unnoticed. Maybe this will be the straw that breaks the camels back and has her relegated to an irrelevant figure, right where she needs to be.

A big congratulations and thank you to Newt Gingrich for saying what the rest of the country knows and believes about this dangerous woman. My only complaint is that he was too much of a gentlemen and may not have been hard enough. She is incompetent and a danger to our national security, and currently sits as 3rd in line to the Presidency. Seems like too much of a risk to me!!