In part two of my “analyzing the 2012 GOP field” article (click here for part one), I’ll take a look at who I believe to be the top five candidates, and then I’ll make a prediction as to how the primaries are going to play out.
Before I begin, I neglected to put former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum on my list. I think he belongs in category two (the “Bill Richardson Division”). Basically, Santorum strikes me as a lesser-version of any of the more established politicians. He’s an evangelical Christian, but would that bloc side with Santorum over Huckabee or Palin? He’s a former Senator, but so was Bill Frist and George Allen. I just can’t see Santorum garnering significant support.
I also planned on having South Dakota Senator John Thune in the top echelon, but then I thought better about myself after reading about how he has a reputation for being a bit “dry”. Oh well. I know he is somewhat of a Republican hero for toppling former Senator Tom Daschle in 2004 (the first time in more than 50 years that a sitting Senate Majority leader lost his re-election bid), but I can’t see the entire national electorate rallying around that piece of trivia. And I can’t see a voter saying “I like Huckabee / Romney / Crist / Palin, but I can’t stand their charisma. I want someone a little more dull. I’ll take Thune, thank you.”
With that out of the way, here’s the top echelon of candidates (in no particular order):
Palin isn’t really much a candidate anymore as she is a symbol of the down-to-earth, middle-class conservatism. Romney may be the most qualified, but he still gives off that “used-car salesman” vibe (and his Mormon faith really riles some arch-Christians). If Tim Pawlenty was an ice cream flavor, he’d be “vanilla”. He’s the “safe” choice. Mike Huckabee can be likeable and funny, but may turn off too many Republicans for being a moderate, and liberals for being an evangelical.
Here’s how I see the 2012 primaries playing out:

Pawlenty: First to Go?

Huckabee Strikes First!
Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin go one-and-two in the Iowa caucus (in whatever order). Some of the lesser-candidates without much money will drop out (like Mitch Daniels or John Thune). Romney cleans up in Nevada and New Hampshire. George Pataki drops out. As they drop out, Romney picks up support. Huckabee and Palin go one-and-two, in whatever order, in South Carolina.
The second group of states are mostly situated in the North / Midwest. Tim Pawlenty attempts to hang on during this stage, but after failing to garner significant support, drops out and endorses Romney. Romney and Palin trade shots; Huckabee starts an irreversible fade (but doesn’t drop out).
Palin will pin her hopes on Texas. However, her hopes (and Presidential chances) will be dashed when Texas Governor Rick Perry (who won a third term in 2010), makes an 11th hour endorsement of Mitt Romney.

Palin makes a valiant effort, but falls short...
Romney defeats Palin, who makes a teary-eyed concession speech, and ultimately secures the Republican nomination.
The media starts piling on Romney. At some point during this year, a worried Democrat Machine makes the decision to drop Joe Biden from the ticket and adds either Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, or Hillary Clinton.
Romney gathers support and selects Rep. Eric Cantor as his Vice Presidential selection. Leaders from the Religious Right are incensed that the Republican ticket consists of a Mormon and a Jew, but ultimately quiet down and cast a vote for the Republicans anyway.

Mr. President?
Heading into Election Day, Romney/Cantor and the Republicans are fairly confident they can win back Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana (four states that went blue in 2008), and the single electoral vote from Nebraska that went to Obama in 2008. That puts them at 248 Electoral Votes. The Democrats are sitting at 226, after solidifying all the other states that Obama won in 2008 except for the ones Romney picked off, and Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are left on the table as swing states. Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, falls to the Democrats. Romney makes a play in New Hampshire, but falls short. The Democrats are sitting at 250. Romney grabs 18 votes from Ohio, putting him at 266 and inches away from the 270 he needs to win the Presidency. Iowa voters, which went for Huckabee in the primaries, go blue yet again.
The American Public wakes up on Wednesday, November 7th, to see President Barack Obama trailing in the electoral college, 256 to Mitt Romney’s 266, with the results from one state, Michigan, still being tabulated.
The nation wonders if Obama’s connections to the unions can be enough to salvage a victory, or if Romney connections to the Great Lakes State (where his father was a former governor), combined with the tireless works of one intrepid, Detroit-area blogger, will be enough to vault him into the Oval Office.
As for what happens next… it’s a little too early to tell. Maybe things will clear up, say, in the next 1000 days.